Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x8069…5514
sports · 165 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 73¢ 47¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-36%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 46¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $1 $0 -9%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 22 $1 $0 -10%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -11%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers May 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Spread: Heat (-8.5) May 16 $1 $0 +18%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels May 16 $1 $0 -30%
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 215.5 May 16 $1 $0 +22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -0%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini May 16 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 13 $1 $0 +2%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils May 07 $1 $0 -28%
Heat vs. Cavaliers May 07 $1 −$1 -88%
Spread: Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) May 07 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 20 Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lorient finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? Apr 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Barcelona place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Blues make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division? Apr 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +4%
Blackhawks vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the AC Mar 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) Mar 30 $1 +$1 +89%
Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Mar 29 $1 +$1 +96%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Mar 29 $1 +$1 +104%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Mar 29 $1 +$1 +113%
Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Mar 28 $1 +$1 +75%
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +89%
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Clippers (-10.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$2
other 22% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 8m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 29m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 30m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 31m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 33m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 33m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 37m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 46m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 21 -5.3% -14.3% 43% 29% -14.0%
≤90d 145 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 29% -13.7%
all 162 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 32% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 32% -10.8%
10% -19.9% 28% -19.3%
15% -27.6% 27% -27.1%
20% -34.7% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.00 (match) · 694 history records