Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8069…e81d economics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-7%) realized −$48 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$18
other 10% −$89
politics 10% −$2
sports 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,583
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $737 $737 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $396 $396 +$0 (+0%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $76 $72 −$4 (-5%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $61 $66 +$5 (+8%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 82¢ 34¢ $151 $61 −$89 (-59%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $58 $42 −$17 (-29%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? No 87¢ 83¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 92¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
JD Vance out as VP by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the July decision? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 91¢ 92¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 28 $180 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 35m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 37m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 37m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 37m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 38m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 38m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 38m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 38m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 38m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 39m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 39m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 39m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? SELL No 3¢ $0 39m
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $117 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 2h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 91¢ $14 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 16¢ $119 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $737 27h
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 27h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $235 33h
ECB rate cut in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 38h
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 40h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 100¢ $2 47h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 100¢ $2 47h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
JD Vance out as VP by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $159 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,583.14 · official $1,583.16 (match) · 92 history records