Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8060…7ee6 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,503 (-9%) realized −$1,501 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$77
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$170
economics 23% +$127
crypto 16% +$86
politics 16% −$507
world 11% −$862
sports 7% −$626
finance 1% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 18 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 33% -25.0%
all 38 -19.9% -27.5% 66% 18% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 18% -17.8%
10% -34.4% 13% -25.6%
15% -40.8% 13% -32.8%
20% -46.6% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$853) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$189 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,501
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage236d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 61¢ 60¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $69 −$68 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $108 −$108 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $105 −$104 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $101 +$105 +104%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $110 −$109 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 11 $125 +$80 +64%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 01 $136 −$135 -99%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $131 +$60 +46%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 21 $105 +$101 +96%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 13 $112 +$53 +48%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 05 $11 +$1 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $856 +$33 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $795 +$98 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $797 +$2 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $962 −$962 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $939 +$23 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $957 −$18 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $906 +$51 +6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $891 +$15 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $853 +$37 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $785 +$68 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 05 $714 +$71 +10%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 20 $692 +$22 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $687 +$4 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $614 −$614 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $1,218 +$83 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 03 $1,206 +$12 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $24 +$1 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $85 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,072 +$24 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $74 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $69 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 18d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $105 25d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $110 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $101 35d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 43¢ $78 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $125 47d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $136 52d
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $50 62d
Utah vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $57 62d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $131 65d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 67¢ $43 65d
Avalanche vs. Oilers BUY Avalanche 51¢ $105 70d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY No 67¢ $112 78d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $856 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $11 98d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $16 98d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $10 98d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 89¢ $795 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $797 111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 96¢ $962 119d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 98¢ $939 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $939 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $781 138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.11 · official $71.11 (match) · 80 history records