Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x805a…0635
other · 293 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$112,389 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107,758 · open −$4,835
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$55,374
Realized−$107,758
Unrealized−$4,835
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses167 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions35
Markets (closed)273 / 293
Avg bet$3,515
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 35 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$22
14 days+$542
30 days−$112,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $25,000 $29,750 +$4,750 (+19%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 40¢ $25,000 $20,250 −$4,750 (-19%)
Will 2+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,307 $2,307 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 45¢ 39¢ $654 $566 −$87 (-13%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $365 $337 −$28 (-8%)
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $316 $313 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 98¢ 94¢ $189 $181 −$8 (-4%)
Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $173 $175 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $157 $159 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be 45+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $77 $114 +$37 (+47%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 74¢ $96 $111 +$15 (+16%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $108 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $108 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $108 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will 1+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 50¢ 64¢ $75 $97 +$22 (+29%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $101 $53 −$48 (-47%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 14¢ $44 $52 +$7 (+17%)
Will there be 35+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 96¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 91¢ 97¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Will the Green Party (MP) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 92¢ 99¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 30+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +1005%
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $25,043 +$4 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $111,920 +$520 +0%
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 18? May 31 $2,500 $0 +0%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
SK Slavia Praha vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 3.5 May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 3 - 0 AC Sparta Praha? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 18? May 25 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? May 25 $32,950 −$32,950 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 17? May 25 $1,970 −$1,970 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 17? May 25 $941 −$941 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 18? May 25 $2,500 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $8,233 +$173 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? May 25 $30,000 −$20,000 -67%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $14,141 +$170 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $17,172 +$225 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? May 18 $56,680 −$56,680 -100%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $6,666 $0 +0%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $144 +$184 +128%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,592 +$754 +29%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-05-09? May 16 $88 +$42 +47%
Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 0 - 3 AC Sparta Praha? May 16 $3 +$312 +9627%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 09 $929 −$929 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix May 09 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 09 $1,373 −$1,373 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand May 09 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 09 $3,421 +$77 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pri May 04 $1,581 +$4,835 +306%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $654 +$602 +92%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1,539 +$498 +32%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $2,422 +$407 +17%
Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 03 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hunga May 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? May 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat May 03 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne May 03 $48 +$54 +113%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hunga May 03 $376 +$13 +3%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun May 03 $940 +$10 +1%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun May 03 $4,095 +$269 +7%
Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP May 03 $8,005 +$32 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $46,163 +$325 +1%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japane Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$3,739
weather 13% −$115,040
crypto 11% +$517
other 11% −$5,451
world 10% +$1,985
sports 8% −$848
culture 1% −$1,707
tech 1% +$11,690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $4 1h
Will there be 30+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 6h
Will 2+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,981 11h
Will 1+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 11h
Will 2+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $328 11h
Will there be 30+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 11h
Will there be 45+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 11h
Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 11h
Will there be 35+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 11h
Will there be 45+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 11h
Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $74 11h
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? BUY Yes 13¢ $375 35h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 45¢ $664 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 8d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10,102 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72,936 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28,882 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $47 11d
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 11d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $0 11d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $0 11d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $7 11d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $7 11d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $31 11d
Will the Centre Party (C) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedis BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 202 BUY No 98¢ $98 20d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +502.6% +445.2% 100% 50% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +102.1% +82.8% 43% 22% -41.8%
≤90d 90 +5.4% -4.6% 47% 19% -29.7%
all 273 +11.5% +0.9% 61% 12% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 12% -25.5%
10% -8.8% 11% -32.6%
15% ← realistic here -17.6% 10% -39.1%
20% -25.7% 8% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,374.11 · official $55,374.11 (match) · 3500 history records