Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8059…c043 sports 1720 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 342d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,635 (-1%) realized −$1,604 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%883W / 835L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,061
other 14% −$1,278
world 1% −$112
politics 0% −$13
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -60.9% -64.6% 22% 22% -62.7%
≤90d 361 -5.0% -14.1% 48% 48% -15.5%
all 1718 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 51% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -10.9%
10% -18.4% 51% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 51% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 50% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$94 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$1,604
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses883 / 835
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1718 / 1720
History coverage343d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 76¢ $300 $286 −$14 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $168 $152 −$16 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Ana Candiotto Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $137 +$61 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $60 −$60 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $55 −$55 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $51 +$49 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 01 $54 +$46 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $57 +$43 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $56 −$56 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $56 +$44 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $58 +$42 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $57 +$43 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 30 $47 +$53 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $56 +$44 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 May 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $56 +$44 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 29 $71 +$29 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $48 +$52 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 29 $29 +$71 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $45 +$55 +124%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 28 $44 −$3 -8%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $43 +$57 +134%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $43 +$57 +134%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic May 23 $37 +$63 +172%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 23 $41 +$58 +141%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $57 +$43 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 May 23 $55 +$45 +83%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 22 $49 +$51 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $49 +$51 +105%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 22 $54 +$46 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $56 +$44 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $302 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $137 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 17d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Shuai Zhang 38¢ $39 20d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $52 20d
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Ana Candiotto BUY Ana Candiotto 53¢ $215 24d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $61 28d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $51 28d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $58 28d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 28d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $60 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $45 30d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $60 30d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $56 30d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $55 30d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 30d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $57 30d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $54 30d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 30d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $58 30d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $48 30d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $56 30d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $56 30d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $56 30d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $57 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $62 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.12 · official $437.12 (match) · 3500 history records