Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8059…40da crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3442 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,412 (+56%) realized +$6,470 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day3442.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3442 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +25.7% +13.8% 59% 9% -7.9%
≤30d 58 +25.7% +13.8% 59% 9% -7.9%
≤90d 58 +25.7% +13.8% 59% 9% -7.9%
all 58 +25.7% +13.8% 59% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3442.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 9% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 3% -16.7%
15% -7.1% 3% -24.8%
20% -16.2% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
57.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$6,470
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day3442.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $134 $224 +$90 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 68¢ 55¢ $98 $78 −$19 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 35¢ 46¢ $58 $74 +$16 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $394 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $182 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $259 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $279 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $89 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $366 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $231 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $151 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $211 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $140 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $144 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $156 −$20 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $210 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $288 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $183 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $506 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $168 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $159 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $136 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $190 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $121 +$57 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $190 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $169 −$20 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $123 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $275 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $295 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $154 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $155 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $119 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $138 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $387 −$22 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $163 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $300 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $183 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $231 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $169 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $171 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $203 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $202 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.35 · official $379.11 (match) · 3500 history records