Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x8056…b64d
sports · 363 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$52,632 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,859 · open −$2,031
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,009
Realized+$24,859
Unrealized−$2,031
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses160 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$5,957
Open positions25
Markets (closed)338 / 363
History coverage22d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day141.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 25 History 338 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,679
7 days+$10,446
14 days+$18,960
30 days+$24,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 60¢ $5,258 $6,050 +$792 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 45¢ 44¢ $2,899 $2,894 −$4 (-0%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 13¢ 32¢ $1,048 $2,548 +$1,500 (+143%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $1,284 $1,464 +$180 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 39¢ 26¢ $1,975 $1,278 −$697 (-35%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $765 $773 +$8 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 77¢ 78¢ $714 $719 +$5 (+1%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 36¢ 55¢ $337 $515 +$178 (+53%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $283 $435 +$153 (+54%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $411 $403 −$8 (-2%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 35¢ 38¢ $350 $375 +$25 (+7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $377 $375 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 62¢ 100¢ $225 $364 +$139 (+62%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ 80¢ $349 $338 −$10 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $288 $308 +$20 (+7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $270 −$30 (-10%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $197 $262 +$65 (+33%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 56¢ $218 $242 +$24 (+11%)
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $271 $168 −$103 (-38%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $118 $150 +$32 (+27%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $153 $66 −$87 (-57%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 28¢ 0¢ $2,444 $4 −$2,440 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 16¢ 0¢ $1,350 $4 −$1,345 (-100%)
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 5¢ 0¢ $249 $2 −$247 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 9¢ 0¢ $177 $1 −$176 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,332 +$2,544 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$249 +49%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $464 +$286 +62%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $345 +$155 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $380 +$158 +42%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $509 +$348 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $921 −$662 -72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $321 −$315 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $285 +$41 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $986 −$824 -84%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $643 −$636 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $430 −$430 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $682 −$682 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $341 +$250 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,276 +$7,051 +165%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $248 +$1,096 +442%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $867 +$705 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $345 +$1,527 +442%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,316 −$1,572 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,033 −$476 -46%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $765 −$765 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $943 −$357 -38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,083 −$3,083 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $716 +$209 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,418 +$1,608 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $382 +$291 +76%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $723 +$317 +44%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $426 +$397 +93%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $926 −$102 -11%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,147 −$166 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,041 +$2,905 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,003 +$4,960 +495%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,516 −$1,516 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $596 +$17 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2,488 +$4,364 +175%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $816 −$816 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,055 −$1,055 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,845 −$1,845 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,379 −$2,914 -86%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $227 −$108 -48%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $479 +$316 +66%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $605 +$281 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,799 +$1,065 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $709 +$677 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$20,274
other 2% +$2,352
politics 1% −$268
world 1% +$471
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $226 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $383 17m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 37¢ $144 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $383 38m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 39¢ $180 39m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $18 40m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $203 41m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $203 50m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 14¢ $346 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $207 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $228 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $534 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $452 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $226 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $343 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $383 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $713 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 9¢ $182 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $123 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $140 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $485 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $254 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 81¢ $965 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $181 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $173 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $135 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $203 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $282 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -9.0% -17.7% 42% 40% -2.4%
≤30d 338 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 338 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -2.7%
all 338 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 46% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover141.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 46% -2.7%
10% -16.6% 45% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.7% 43% -20.5%
20% -32.0% 34% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,008.64 · official $20,186.00 (match) · 3500 history records