Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x804e…a96a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-34%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 20% -51.1%
≤30d 5 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 20% -51.1%
≤90d 5 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 20% -51.1%
all 5 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 20% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 20% -51.1%
10% -61.2% 20% -55.8%
15% -65.0% 20% -60.1%
20% -68.4% 20% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 −$26 -77%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 −$31 -54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$21 +59%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$47 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 58m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $58 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records