Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x804b…d097
sports · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$22
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 5 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days−$2
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-23%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 60¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 17¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22? Yes 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 45¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 42¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Hurricanes 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 45¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? Yes 14¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 24 $41 +$14 +34%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 22 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $10 −$5 -49%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? May 21 $5 +$2 +39%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? May 04 $5 +$5 +105%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 30 $5 +$6 +116%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $5 +$6 +122%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 15 $5 +$5 +104%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Canadiens vs. Islanders Apr 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Penguins vs. Capitals Apr 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Apr 10 $5 +$11 +212%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$18
other 21% −$35
weather 11% −$6
world 8% −$7
finance 4% +$2
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $6 1h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $5 10d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 10d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $5 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 12d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 47¢ $5 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 44¢ $5 19d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 23d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 44¢ $5 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 46¢ $5 23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 35¢ $5 23d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $53 23d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 23d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 23d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 23d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.6% +22.7% 100% 100% +30.2%
≤30d 21 -35.6% -41.8% 43% 43% -37.0%
≤90d 43 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 51% -17.0%
all 43 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 51% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 51% -17.0%
10% -25.4% 40% -24.9%
15% -32.6% 40% -32.2%
20% -39.2% 35% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.85 · official $21.85 (match) · 92 history records