Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x804a…d316 sports 423 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate87%368W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$35
14 days+$257
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$103
politics 4% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 166 +1.2% -8.4% 93% 5% -8.2%
≤90d 378 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 21% -9.6%
all 422 -1.6% -11.0% 87% 24% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 24% -10.4%
10% -19.5% 8% -19.0%
15% -27.3% 4% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses368 / 54
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)422 / 423
History coverage111d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A ex-MANA eSports 92¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite Jun 28 $102 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 27 $9 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 27 $101 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $54 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $101 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $77 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 26 $102 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $101 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Cl Jun 24 $51 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $101 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 23 $94 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 21 $36 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $101 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $102 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P BUY ex-MANA eSports 92¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite BUY ex-MANA eSports 95¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 92¢ $100 17h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY ex-RUBY 94¢ $9 19h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY QUAZAR 93¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 93¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY ShindeN 92¢ $101 23h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 93¢ $101 25h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Inner Circle Academy 93¢ $54 28h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 94¢ $101 42h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 93¢ $100 45h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 93¢ $77 46h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 92¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Just Players 92¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Endless Journey 91¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 92¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 91¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY OlyBet SB 92¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 93¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 93¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 94¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Cl BUY RED Canids Academy 94¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 92¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 94¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr BUY ODDIK 92¢ $94 5d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 93¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 93¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 93¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 96¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.64 · official $108.64 (match) · 870 history records