Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

80 0x8046…6ea0 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$4,099 (-43%) realized −$4,066 · open −$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$499per market

Trades / day11.3pace

Fees−$60est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-46.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-41.1%	-46.7%	33%	33%	-53.2%
≤30d	18	-41.1%	-46.7%	33%	33%	-53.2%
≤90d	18	-41.1%	-46.7%	33%	33%	-53.2%
all	18	-41.1%	-46.7%	33%	33%	-53.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.7%	33%	-53.2%
10%	-51.8%	33%	-57.7%
15%	-56.5%	28%	-61.7%
20%	-60.8%	22%	-65.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$699) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -67% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$284 vs −$491 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$631

Realized−$4,066

Unrealized−$33

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$60

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$499

Trades / day11.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Over	30¢	28¢	$664	$631	−$33 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 19	$265	+$364	+138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 19	$571	−$550	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 19	$463	+$112	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 19	$320	+$275	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 18	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$251	−$244	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 18	$156	+$178	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 18	$311	−$311	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$1,001	−$986	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,297	−$1,271	-98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$895	+$407	+46%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,000	−$993	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$550	−$536	-97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$512	−$500	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$699	+$365	+52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$298	−$290	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$678	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$159	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$465	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$257	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$595	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$320	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$251	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$53	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$52	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$52	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$52	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$52	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$311	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	0¢	$5	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	0¢	$5	14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$1,001	21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1,297	37h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,302	37h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$895	38h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5	BUY Over	6¢	$103	40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,000	45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$550	2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$512	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$699	2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$298	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.00 · official $631.22 (match) · 37 history records