Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8044…25fe world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% $0
world 30% −$6
other 22% $0
sports 4% +$23
finance 4% +$2
crypto 3% −$4
economics 2% −$2
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 29 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 50 +1.0% -8.7% 44% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 4% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 4% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage484d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $34 −$3 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $68 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $72 −$3 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $68 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $97 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $31 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $32 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $264 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $265 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? Mar 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $21 +$1 +3%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $9 $0 -6%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $20 $0 -0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $38 −$4 -10%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? Mar 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? Mar 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 11 $34 $0 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Mar 06 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 04 $22 $0 +0%
East Carolina vs. Tulane Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $22 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $11 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.64 · official $27.64 (match) · 183 history records