Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8044…38fa politics 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%63W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$4
other 25% −$1
sports 13% $0
crypto 9% +$2
world 5% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 84 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 161 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses63 / 188
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)251 / 254
History coverage137d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $21 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $24 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 02 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 30m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 44m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 2h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 3h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $7 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 6h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 8h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $8 9h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 14h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 14h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 16h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $10 18h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.82 · official $25.82 (match) · 1227 history records