Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8043…121b other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+6%) realized +$34 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1
tech 27% +$38
sports 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 67% +8.2%
≤30d 3 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 67% +8.2%
≤90d 3 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 67% +8.2%
all 3 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 67% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 67% +8.2%
10% -32.3% 67% -2.1%
15% -38.8% 0% -11.6%
20% -44.8% 0% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $385 $384 −$1 (-0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $149 +$38 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 4m
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 4m
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $65 7m
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 8m
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $9 10m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35m
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 41m
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $34 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 74¢ $32 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 27¢ $4 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 25¢ $3 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.08 · official $391.08 (match) · 29 history records