Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8043…7e73 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
politics 19% +$1
other 11% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 60% 10% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 5% -9.2%
all 44 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage260d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $60 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $69 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $91 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $57 +$3 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $119 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $4 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Feb 01 $7 $0 +5%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025? Oct 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $60 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $69 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $69 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $2 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $43 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $18 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $62 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $8 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records