Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8042…9c34 other 41 markets active 12h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+16%) realized +$73 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$66
sports 32% +$6
world 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 60% +10.2%
≤30d 5 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 60% +10.2%
≤90d 10 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 50% +9.7%
all 40 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 60% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 60% +5.5%
10% -13.9% 60% -4.6%
15% -22.3% 60% -13.8%
20% -29.9% 42% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage116d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $10 +$16 +170%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $19 +$12 +61%
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Mar 02 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $10 +$6 +61%
Blackhawks vs. Predators Feb 27 $10 +$6 +64%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $10 +$9 +96%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $34 +$19 +54%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $14 +$7 +49%
Celtics vs. Warriors Feb 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 41d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY NIP 87¢ $6 87d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 50¢ $3 87d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 37¢ $10 94d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 94d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? BUY No 57¢ $5 95d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? BUY No 57¢ $10 101d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 57¢ $7 101d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 62¢ $10 102d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 62¢ $10 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 62¢ $10 103d
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $20 107d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 4¢ $10 109d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 47¢ $10 109d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 62¢ $10 109d
Blackhawks vs. Predators BUY Predators 61¢ $10 109d
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 110d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 110d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 110d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 111d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 111d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? BUY No 70¢ $10 111d
Magic vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 69¢ $10 111d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 61¢ $10 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.83 (match) · 66 history records