Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x8040…d904 crypto 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%184W / 91L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% -7.7%
≤30d 275 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 66% -7.7%
≤90d 275 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 66% -7.7%
all 275 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 66% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 66% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 66% -16.6%
15% -25.4% 64% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 21% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses184 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $1.67 (match) · 459 history records