Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x803f…b6b3 sports 182 markets active 1d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,473 (-23%) realized −$4,473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%50W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$650
14 days−$650
30 days−$1,796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$3,864
crypto 23% −$476
other 2% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.1% -40.4% 29% 29% -47.4%
≤30d 46 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 30% -47.7%
≤90d 170 -22.5% -29.9% 27% 26% -31.1%
all 182 -21.5% -29.0% 27% 27% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 27% -30.7%
10% -35.8% 25% -37.3%
15% -42.0% 24% -43.4%
20% -47.7% 24% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$101 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses50 / 132
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage92d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $183 −$178 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$85 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $172 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 +$74 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $144 −$141 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $98 +$197 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$155 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 30 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $99 −$94 -95%
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Contender May 26 $101 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 22 $60 +$74 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 22 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 22 $101 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $27 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champio May 22 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $103 +$190 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 22 $103 +$186 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$18 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $104 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $102 +$153 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $42 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 22 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 17 $105 +$249 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $101 +$198 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $183 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $99 31h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 19¢ $98 32h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY Washed 22¢ $98 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 12¢ $74 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $172 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 56¢ $98 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $98 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 21¢ $144 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 26¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G SELL MARKandLARRY 100¢ $296 5d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 32¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $146 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $93 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $92 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $93 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $93 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $99 22d
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Contender BUY Melilla Titans 15¢ $101 22d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY Misa Esports 29¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $32 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $103 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $99 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records