Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x803c…966a sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$269 (-24%) realized −$270 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$130
other 37% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -34.4%
≤30d 12 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -34.4%
≤90d 12 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -34.4%
all 12 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -34.4%
10% -41.4% 33% -40.7%
15% -47.1% 33% -46.4%
20% -52.3% 33% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$72 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$61 -60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$104 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $152 +$137 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$52 -51%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $60 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $41 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $40 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $51 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $81 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 38h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 38h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 46h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $101 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $90 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $47 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.70 · official $59.70 (match) · 23 history records