Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x803a…5f50
weather · 220 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses121 / 83
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)204 / 220
History coverage23d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 16 History 204 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$90
14 days−$49
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 72¢ 74¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? No 67¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? No 64¢ 99¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 82¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? No 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 69¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 69¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? No 71¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? No 74¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 70¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 58¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $10 +$12 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $7 −$4 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -77%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $5 +$6 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 81% −$4
world 9% −$31
sports 5% +$13
other 3% +$13
politics 1% −$8
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -17.6% -25.4% 52% 52% -28.6%
≤30d 204 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 58% -10.0%
≤90d 204 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 58% -10.0%
all 204 -3.4% -12.6% 59% 58% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 58% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 48% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 34% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 20% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.95 · official $45.98 (match) · 733 history records