Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x803a…d56a sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$701 (-9%) realized −$701 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$987
7 days−$1,829
14 days−$1,949
30 days−$2,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$744
other 41% −$1,420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.4% -16.2% 19% 19% -43.8%
≤30d 49 -27.2% -34.2% 22% 18% -38.2%
≤90d 49 -27.2% -34.2% 22% 18% -38.2%
all 49 -27.2% -34.2% 22% 18% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 18% -38.2%
10% -40.5% 16% -44.1%
15% -46.2% 16% -49.5%
20% -51.5% 14% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$114 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$701
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage18d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $992 −$968 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $320 −$311 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $453 −$443 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $330 +$1,074 +325%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $119 −$116 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $140 −$74 -53%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $287 −$283 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $649 +$515 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 −$149 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $116 +$79 +69%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $722 −$587 -81%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $162 −$75 -46%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$64 +982%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $46 −$44 -97%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $43 +$65 +152%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $132 −$69 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $70 −$42 -59%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $327 −$84 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $13 −$5 -41%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $146 −$22 -15%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 07 $428 −$88 -20%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $303 +$59 +19%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 06 $137 +$133 +97%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $85 −$14 -16%
Paris Basketball vs. Cholet Jun 04 $127 +$4 +3%
BC Dubai vs. Partizan Jun 04 $2 $0 -4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $181 −$104 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $33 −$33 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $42 −$41 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 03 $231 −$45 -20%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 Jun 03 $191 +$165 +86%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 01 $87 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 18¢ $992 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 7¢ $320 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $264 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $47 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 18¢ $453 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $330 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 7¢ $37 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $119 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 19¢ $49 2d
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen SELL Alba Berlin 27¢ $62 2d
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 32¢ $78 2d
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 32¢ $62 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $287 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $649 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $43 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 43¢ $151 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 24¢ $33 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $47 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 SELL Over 53¢ $77 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 43¢ $64 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 45¢ $62 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $125 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $536 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $99 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 21¢ $23 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 21¢ $19 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 85¢ $85 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 17¢ $15 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 17¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records