Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8039…2afe politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5
world 18% −$2
other 17% −$3
culture 16% −$3
sports 12% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$722) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage88d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1,308 $0 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $729 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $747 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 21 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $24 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Mar 23 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,254 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 2h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $217 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $987 2h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 3h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,250 3h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $17 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 17h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 18h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $963 18h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 18h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $276 19h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,240 19h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $95 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $95 24d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 24d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records