Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8036…b51a crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$260 (+7%) realized +$260 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%50W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days+$336
14 days+$336
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$100
other 39% +$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.8% +24.6% 75% 75% +20.9%
≤30d 4 +37.8% +24.6% 75% 75% +20.9%
≤90d 4 +37.8% +24.6% 75% 75% +20.9%
all 84 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 49% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 49% -2.7%
10% -18.9% 36% -12.0%
15% -26.7% 27% -20.5%
20% -33.9% 15% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses50 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage93d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $182 +$99 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $313 −$11 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 +$137 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 25 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 25 $48 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 24 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 24 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 24 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$34 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 24 $91 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 24 $111 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 24 $114 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $121 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 37¢ $357 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $302 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $313 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $301 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $30 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $14 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $23 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $14 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $12 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records