Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8033…15eb crypto 11 markets active 7d ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-32%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +12.8% +2.0% 75% 50% +2.5%
≤90d 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 36% -40.8%
all 11 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 36% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -40.8%
10% -32.7% 27% -46.5%
15% -39.2% 18% -51.7%
20% -45.2% 18% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records