Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x8031…c84c
sports · 1436 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$489 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$489 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$133
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses681 / 732
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions37
Markets (closed)1413 / 1436
History coverage55d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 37 History 1413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$61
14 days−$169
30 days−$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 81¢ 91¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 58¢ 62¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 71¢ 88¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 65¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 80¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 68¢ 66¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 66¢ 40¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 57¢ 67¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 31¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+106%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 50¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -153%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Pa Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$5 -43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$7 +129%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +150%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$6 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $7 +$9 +134%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$1 -13%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 +$4 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $1 +$8 +786%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 09 $7 +$3 +42%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot Jun 09 $7 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 09 $7 −$2 -28%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$157
other 19% −$44
crypto 12% −$237
world 8% +$65
politics 3% −$4
culture 2% −$104
finance 1% +$5
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $2 27m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 50¢ $3 58m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 68¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 72¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 14¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 68¢ $7 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 4h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 44¢ $7 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $7 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 59¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $6 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 85¢ $9 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $6 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 36¢ $4 11h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 14¢ $2 12h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 86¢ $9 12h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $3 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $1 18h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $6 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 19h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY INOX Division 40¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 34¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 32% -16.6%
≤30d 717 -8.2% -17.0% 47% 37% -17.7%
≤90d 1413 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 40% -13.2%
all 1413 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 40% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 40% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 35% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 31% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.97 · official $132.28 (match) · 3500 history records