Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x802f…54d2 crypto 1668 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$753 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%1193W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$155
14 days+$155
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +3.2% -6.7% 73% 73% -6.7%
≤30d 467 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 73% -8.2%
≤90d 1668 -0.0% -9.6% 72% 72% -9.4%
all 1668 -0.0% -9.6% 72% 72% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 72% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 72% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 42% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1193 / 475
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1668 / 1668
History coverage72d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records