Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8027…ffde sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,115 (+5%) realized +$854 · open +$261
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%44W / 42L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$197
14 days+$374
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$29
other 23% +$470
sports 11% +$729
world 2% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.5% -37.1% 35% 35% +2.5%
≤30d 45 -14.6% -22.8% 44% 42% +5.3%
≤90d 78 +7.8% -2.4% 50% 47% +3.4%
all 86 +7.1% -3.1% 51% 43% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 43% -5.3%
10% -12.4% 42% -14.4%
15% -20.8% 40% -22.6%
20% -28.6% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$26 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,290
Realized+$854
Unrealized+$261
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses44 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 106
History coverage133d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 20¢ 72¢ $112 $405 +$293 (+262%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $242 $234 −$8 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $153 $132 −$21 (-14%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $15 $24 +$8 (+57%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $15 $22 +$6 (+43%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $2 −$5 (-78%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +58%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$22 +86%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria Jun 17 $25 +$33 +131%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $125 +$131 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $107 +$100 +94%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $131 +$40 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$22 +219%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $187 +$82 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$84 +104%
Will Dell say "Layoff" during earnings call? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $91 +$47 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $30 +$35 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$91 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$23 +149%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $18 +$17 +94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $52 +$38 +73%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $496 $0 +0%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 12 $25 +$21 +84%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 12 $23 +$33 +142%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $25 +$27 +105%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $179 −$102 -57%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $43 +$59 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 51¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 53¢ $25 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $106 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $30 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Canada vs. BUY 55¢ $62 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 21h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 41h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 42h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 42h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 45h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $25 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 44¢ $25 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,290.04 · official $1,340.54 · 298 history records