Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8024…5de2 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$208 (+102%) realized +$218 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +128% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$40
sports 25% +$116
world 6% +$59
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+106.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +128.1% +106.4% 22% 22% +68.6%
≤30d 54 +128.1% +106.4% 22% 22% +68.6%
≤90d 54 +128.1% +106.4% 22% 22% +68.6%
all 54 +128.1% +106.4% 22% 22% +68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +106.4% 22% +68.6%
10% ← realistic here +86.6% 22% +52.5%
15% +68.6% 22% +37.8%
20% +52.1% 22% +24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +125% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +128% · $-wt +125% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +194% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$3 · ×10.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-73%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$20 +393%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -82%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$67 +2161%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 +$11 +550%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -74%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$15 +711%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +471%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$46 +1493%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$54 +5290%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$49 +4752%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 4m
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $2 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 21h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.01 · official $16.73 · 99 history records