Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8021…5ec6 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$5
other 30% −$3
politics 13% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 23% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 23% 8% -8.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage422d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $26 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $28 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $3 −$1 -20%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 09 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 08 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 -4%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 08 $18 −$2 -8%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 06 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? May 05 $6 $0 +9%
Will KSI win the match? Apr 24 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $35 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $20 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $20 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 30h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $31 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $26 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $35 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $35 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $26 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records