Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x801d…d8e0 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$28,039 (+9%) realized +$36,682 · open −$8,643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%81W / 57L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,898per market
Trades / day66.5pace
Fees−$1,007est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$68,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,170
7 days+$3,340
14 days+$2,563
30 days+$34,733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5,913
crypto 29% +$4,869
sports 12% +$14,509
finance 6% −$3,742
other 3% +$1,380
politics 2% +$2,329
economics 0% +$2,028
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 36% -3.9%
≤30d 93 +12.7% +2.0% 62% 47% +9.4%
≤90d 138 +15.6% +4.6% 59% 46% +6.1%
all 138 +15.6% +4.6% 59% 46% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 46% +6.1%
10% -5.4% 39% -4.1%
15% ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -13.3%
20% -22.9% 28% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$922 vs −$680 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$68,526
Realized+$36,682
Unrealized−$8,643
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses81 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,007
Open positions21
Markets (closed)138 / 157
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$1,898
Trades / day66.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $25,969 $26,550 +$581 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $13,840 $10,235 −$3,605 (-26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $5,150 $6,396 +$1,247 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $4,790 $5,610 +$820 (+17%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 22¢ $10,877 $3,901 −$6,976 (-64%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $3,192 $3,864 +$672 (+21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 60¢ 36¢ $5,979 $3,641 −$2,338 (-39%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 92¢ $3,197 $3,404 +$207 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $719 $1,012 +$292 (+41%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 99¢ $751 $991 +$239 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $686 $796 +$110 (+16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 70¢ 100¢ $528 $747 +$219 (+41%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $376 $395 +$19 (+5%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $200 $235 +$35 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 49¢ 46¢ $245 $228 −$18 (-7%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 91¢ $143 $182 +$39 (+27%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $188 $1 −$187 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,542 +$203 +13%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $490 +$510 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 20 $890 +$105 +12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $290 −$290 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,586 −$1,550 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $1,779 +$221 +12%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $290 +$710 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $2,418 +$82 +3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 17 $940 +$50 +5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $170 +$830 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,266 +$1,151 +91%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $989 −$989 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6,525 +$2,302 +35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,610 +$279 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,583 +$97 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,630 −$1,759 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,887 +$112 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,900 +$100 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,825 +$3,815 +209%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,385 +$1,890 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,822 +$178 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,895 −$3,818 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $770 −$690 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $6,799 +$2,601 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $780 +$220 +28%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $950 +$40 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $655 +$255 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $245 +$255 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1,020 +$980 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $680 +$320 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $245 +$255 +104%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,790 −$1,790 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $67 3m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 93¢ $38 31m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 93¢ $148 31m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 36m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $293 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 82¢ $407 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $147 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $294 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,760 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $54 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $96 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $66 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $268 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $178 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $490 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $293 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,900 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $177 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,383 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $294 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,526.09 · official $68,526.09 (match) · 3500 history records