Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x801b…bbd1 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 503d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$30
sports 1% +$10
other 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 -55.8% -60.0% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 57 -13.5% -21.7% 35% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 33% -9.3%
10% -29.2% 33% -17.9%
15% -36.1% 33% -25.9%
20% -42.3% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$9,835
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage503d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9,830 $9,835 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 29 $9,805 +$25 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Dec 02 $3 +$4 +138%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Dec 01 $5 −$1 -25%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 01 $7 $0 -1%
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Dec 01 $1 +$2 +178%
Magic vs. Pistons Dec 01 $4 +$5 +138%
Canadiens vs. Utah Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Predators vs. Red Wings Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Penguins Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 27 $3 +$2 +79%
Red Wings vs. Devils Nov 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Pelicans Nov 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Nov 25 $3 +$3 +113%
Avalanche vs. Predators Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Blues vs. Islanders Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Nov 24 $4 +$4 +113%
Devils vs. Flyers Nov 24 $4 +$4 +108%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Wild Nov 20 $3 +$4 +138%
Devils vs. Lightning Nov 19 $4 +$2 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. 76ers Nov 18 $3 +$1 +54%
Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 16 $4 −$4 -100%
TCU vs. BYU Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Blues Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Nov 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Bruins vs. Senators Nov 14 $7 $0 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 13 $6 +$2 +37%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 13 $4 +$4 +92%
Stars vs. Senators Nov 12 $3 +$3 +104%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $104 $0 -0%
Mariners vs. Rangers Jul 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Islanders Apr 02 $22 +$13 +59%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 28 $17 +$38 +223%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Feb 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $6 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,831 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,603 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,900 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,900 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 3d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 83d
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $1 147d
Blue Jackets vs. Devils BUY Blue Jackets 42¢ $3 210d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 68¢ $4 210d
Grizzlies vs. Clippers BUY Grizzlies 31¢ $1 213d
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights BUY Canadiens 36¢ $1 213d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 42¢ $4 213d
Bulls vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 44¢ $3 213d
Bulls vs. Hornets BUY Bulls 57¢ $4 213d
Grizzlies vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 71¢ $4 213d
Predators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 60¢ $4 215d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Sabres 48¢ $2 215d
Canadiens vs. Utah BUY Utah 57¢ $4 215d
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $1 215d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 56¢ $3 216d
Red Wings vs. Devils BUY Red Wings 45¢ $3 217d
Bulls vs. Pelicans BUY Bulls 67¢ $4 217d
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks BUY Trail Blazers 47¢ $3 217d
Avalanche vs. Predators BUY Predators 33¢ $4 219d
Devils vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 48¢ $4 219d
Blues vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 55¢ $4 219d
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks BUY Grizzlies 47¢ $4 219d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 57¢ $4 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,835.32 · official $9,835.32 (match) · 129 history records