trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 09 | $182 | +$468 | +257% |
| Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $454 | +$339 | +75% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Jun 03 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +77.2% | +60.4% | 67% | 67% | +102.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +57.9% | +42.9% | 50% | 50% | +100.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +57.9% | +42.9% | 50% | 50% | +100.9% |
| all | 4 | +57.9% | +42.9% | 50% | 50% | +100.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +42.9% | 50% | +100.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +29.2% | 50% | +81.7% |
| 15% | +16.7% | 50% | +64.1% |
| 20% | +5.3% | 50% | +48.0% |