Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x801a…589a crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$153
other 28% +$11
sports 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 50% -52.2%
≤30d 10 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 50% -52.2%
≤90d 10 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 50% -52.2%
all 10 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 50% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.6% 50% -52.2%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 30% -56.8%
15% -49.9% 20% -61.0%
20% -54.8% 0% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$32 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$82 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $33 +$15 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $112 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $109.81 · 27 history records