Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x801a…d210 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$1
world 24% −$2
politics 13% $0
culture 11% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
all 29 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage288d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Sep 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $37 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 19 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $39 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $29 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $0 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $28 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $29 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $30 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $14 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $22 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 30d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 273d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 273d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 273d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $9 273d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $10 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.05 · official $39.05 (match) · 101 history records