Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8013…3c26 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 50L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 15% −$12
other 11% +$8
sports 2% +$65
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.6% +1.9% 14% 14% -6.2%
≤30d 17 +5.1% -4.9% 12% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 52 +7.0% -3.2% 25% 19% -7.7%
all 65 +5.4% -4.6% 23% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 15% -9.3%
10% -13.8% 15% -18.0%
15% -22.1% 15% -25.9%
20% -29.7% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage619d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $6 +$6 +90%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $251 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $120 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $11 +$9 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$7 +50%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 06 $14 +$19 +133%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 03 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Flames Apr 01 $23 +$14 +64%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 22h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 25h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 42h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $6 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.34 · official $59.34 (match) · 306 history records