Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
80 0x8010…04e4 other 999 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,689 (+11%) realized +$23,689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate78%781W / 218L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,507
7 days+$935
14 days+$935
30 days+$1,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$15,332
sports 29% +$6,902
world 2% +$294
crypto 2% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +20.7% +9.2% 71% 28% -7.0%
≤30d 101 +22.0% +10.3% 71% 29% -5.0%
≤90d 878 +28.2% +16.0% 79% 37% +0.6%
all 999 +29.3% +17.0% 78% 37% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.0% 37% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here +5.8% 24% -9.5%
15% -4.4% 17% -18.2%
20% -13.8% 14% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23,689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses781 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)999 / 999
History coverage102d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 999 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $600 +$5 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $779 −$194 -25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $601 −$27 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,562 −$184 -12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $300 +$14 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $601 +$11 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $12 +$3 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $631 −$343 -54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $196 −$141 -72%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $421 −$89 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $423 +$11 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,471 −$881 -36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $771 −$131 -17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $344 +$5 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$108 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $301 +$34 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$16 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $543 −$17 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 +$83 +28%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $649 +$28 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $276 +$179 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,071 +$109 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$34 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 +$48 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $901 +$10 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $302 +$39 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $901 +$26 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $901 +$18 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,723 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,202 −$3 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $901 +$36 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $901 +$4 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 +$16 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $605 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $69 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $172 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $516 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $574 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $300 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $300 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $303 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 11¢ $80 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 40¢ $305 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $879 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 28¢ $81 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $300 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $53 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $338 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $612 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $302 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $300 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $301 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3179 history records