Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x8010…c321 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,072 (-8%) realized −$1,068 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days−$1,617
14 days−$1,488
30 days−$1,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$838
sports 44% −$654
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 45% -21.6%
≤30d 33 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 48% -20.3%
≤90d 33 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 48% -20.3%
all 33 +4.5% -5.5% 52% 48% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 48% -20.3%
10% -14.5% 39% -27.9%
15% -22.8% 39% -34.9%
20% -30.3% 39% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$607) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$281 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $536 $533 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $719 −$175 -24%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $617 +$102 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $389 +$228 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $341 +$48 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $205 +$136 +67%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $239 −$35 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +108%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $226 −$200 -88%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $328 $0 -0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $630 −$630 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $530 −$202 -38%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,405 −$1,252 -89%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $717 +$689 +96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,736 −$1,019 -59%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $63 +$74 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,097 +$565 +52%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $610 +$390 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $179 +$179 +100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $246 +$220 +89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $607 −$269 -44%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $390 −$245 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$36 +92%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $328 +$18 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $54 +$30 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $128 +$138 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$79 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $544 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 54¢ $544 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $719 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $617 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $389 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $341 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $205 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $205 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $239 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 8¢ $27 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $226 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $328 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $328 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $328 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $530 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $630 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 60¢ $154 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $154 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1,405 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $717 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $717 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,736 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $63 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,097 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 61¢ $173 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $610 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $1 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.52 · official $532.52 (match) · 67 history records