Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
80 0x800e…abf8 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+16%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$24
other 25% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.6% +39.9% 100% 100% +39.9%
≤30d 2 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +45.8%
≤90d 2 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +45.8%
all 16 +17.3% +6.1% 69% 62% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 62% +9.0%
10% -4.0% 56% -1.4%
15% -13.3% 56% -10.9%
20% -21.8% 56% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage98d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $28 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5AM ET Mar 18 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Taoiseach events? Mar 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 17 $23 +$18 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 15 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 15 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 15 $23 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 15 $5 +$5 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 94d
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Taoiseach events? BUY No 86¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $12 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $11 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $23 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.40 · official $40.40 (match) · 41 history records