Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

80 0x800c…0bad sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$84 (+12%) realized +$110 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$18

7 days+$13

14 days+$13

30 days+$76

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-35.9%	-42.0%	40%	40%	-2.5%
≤30d	16	-31.1%	-37.6%	38%	31%	+5.3%
≤90d	16	-31.1%	-37.6%	38%	31%	+5.3%
all	16	-31.1%	-37.6%	38%	31%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.6%	31%	+5.3%
10%	-43.6%	31%	-4.8%
15%	-49.0%	31%	-14.0%
20%	-54.0%	31%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -46% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage

Net worth$89

Realized+$110

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage31d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	48¢	$50	$31	−$19 (-38%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Over	51¢	51¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	Over	41¢	16¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$76	+$40	+52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$35	+$19	+55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$30	−$26	-86%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 03	$5	−$5	-94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 03	$15	+$21	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 01	$101	+$10	+10%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	May 29	$20	−$20	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	May 28	$138	−$6	-4%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	May 23	$36	−$35	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	May 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	May 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	May 22	$41	+$70	+172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	May 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	May 20	$71	+$43	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$25	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$10	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$15	18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$76	18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	8¢	$4	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	23h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Golden Knights	41¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Golden Knights	41¢	$15	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$112	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$101	16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	BUY Canadiens	31¢	$20	18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Canadiens	2¢	$5	20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	SELL Hurricanes	58¢	$91	20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	SELL Canadiens	43¢	$40	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$91	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Canadiens	44¢	$42	23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	BUY Canadiens	22¢	$36	24d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	27d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	BUY Canadiens	36¢	$41	27d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	61¢	$71	31d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.49 · official $89.49 (match) · 34 history records