Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x800a…b60b world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%26W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$6
other 26% +$1
politics 14% −$1
sports 13% −$12
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 2% -9.4%
all 73 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses26 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage535d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 82¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $86 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $66 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $74 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $28 +$2 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $66 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $33 −$1 -4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $33 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.00 · official $37.26 · 303 history records