Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8006…3ff9 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$65
weather 47% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -5.0%
≤30d 13 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -5.0%
≤90d 13 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -5.0%
all 13 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 46% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 46% -5.0%
10% -10.7% 38% -14.1%
15% -19.3% 23% -22.4%
20% -27.2% 23% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $37 +$8 +23%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $20 +$66 +329%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $19 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $23 +$19 +82%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $24 +$26 +110%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $51 −$25 -49%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $47 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $40 −$23 -57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $165 −$48 -29%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $42 +$12 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $45 12m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 79¢ $37 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 13¢ $86 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland $20 3h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY Enjoy 42¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 58¢ $26 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $42 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $0 24h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $6 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $49 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 46¢ $24 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 22¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 22¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 18¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 21¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 39¢ $49 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 62¢ $52 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 56¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records