Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8006…94dc sports 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%160W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$937
7 days−$41
14 days−$59
30 days−$1,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$749
other 34% −$629
crypto 14% −$475
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 40% -10.3%
≤30d 163 -14.5% -22.6% 35% 31% -20.5%
≤90d 458 -6.9% -15.8% 35% 33% -11.3%
all 458 -6.9% -15.8% 35% 33% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 33% -11.3%
10% -23.8% 32% -19.7%
15% -31.2% 30% -27.5%
20% -37.9% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$34 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses160 / 298
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)458 / 462
History coverage66d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $146 +$111 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $574 +$53 +9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$51 -50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$33 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$73 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$28 +140%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$82 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$182 +179%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$25 -81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$17 -34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$78 -77%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$323 +159%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$47 +91%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$18 -35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $152 +$28 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $20 −$18 -90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 −$8 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $105 +$77 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$30 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $20 +$91 +442%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$4 -35%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $88 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $169 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $146 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $204 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $51 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $627 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $574 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $135 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $131 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $101 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.61 · official $127.61 (match) · 1087 history records