Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8005…2fee crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$887per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$14
economics 31% −$8
other 16% −$4
crypto 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 28 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage235d
Avg bet$887
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 28 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Mar 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 02 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Feb 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $4,118 −$4 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $4,130 −$4 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 02 $4,130 −$4 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 02 $4,138 −$4 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 31? Jan 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? Dec 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Dec 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? Nov 10 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $5,972 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 02 $2,984 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 49d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 57d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 115d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 130d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $28 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 162d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $40 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 167d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,114 173d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,118 173d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $4,126 173d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4,130 173d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,126 173d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,130 173d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $4,134 173d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $4,138 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 176d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 198d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 204d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 1? BUY No 100¢ $25 206d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.98 · official $103.98 (match) · 231 history records