Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x8004…cd61 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,308 (+11%) realized +$1,308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$927
7 days+$998
14 days+$1,063
30 days+$1,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$1,916
world 13% −$498
politics 11% +$110
economics 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
sports 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.0% +10.3% 80% 80% +26.0%
≤30d 13 +150.8% +126.9% 85% 85% +28.1%
≤90d 31 +56.5% +41.6% 58% 55% +6.0%
all 42 +43.0% +29.4% 69% 43% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 43% +4.5%
10% +17.0% 36% -5.5%
15% +5.7% 33% -14.7%
20% -4.7% 24% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$104 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 55
History coverage247d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 27 $339 +$320 +94%
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 27 $757 +$125 +16%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $1,295 +$482 +37%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 26 $149 +$74 +50%
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$19 +94%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $15 +$21 +142%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $84 +$15 +18%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +885%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +264%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 17 $1 $0 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$38 +369%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$16 +153%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? May 26 $500 −$500 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? May 26 $585 −$585 -100%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $835 +$308 +37%
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $21 $0 -1%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $426 −$5 -1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $407 +$104 +26%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 21 $500 +$420 +84%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $100 +$410 +410%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 21 $30 −$28 -93%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $200 +$172 +86%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 20 $200 +$72 +36%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 24 $1,205 +$106 +9%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1,078 +$127 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $998 +$87 +9%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $35 +$3 +9%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 02 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 30 $11 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 29 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 1h
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 1h
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $103 1h
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $76 1h
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 80¢ $79 1h
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch BUY Yes 33¢ $35 1h
Squid FDV above $200M one day after launch BUY Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch BUY Yes 15¢ $3 16h
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 31¢ $8 23h
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $6 23h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY No 30¢ $0 29h
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 1¢ $1 29h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY No 30¢ $30 29h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $51 29h
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 4¢ $5 29h
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $882 29h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,777 29h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 72¢ $649 29h
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 72¢ $31 44h
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 72¢ $20 44h
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 2d
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $222 2d
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $101 4d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,246.68 · 153 history records