Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8003…2e1d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+8%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +158% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +115% what you keep after slip
Net edge+115%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$14
sports 20% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+133.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +157.8% +133.3% 40% 40% -2.7%
≤30d 5 +157.8% +133.3% 40% 40% -2.7%
≤90d 5 +157.8% +133.3% 40% 40% -2.7%
all 5 +157.8% +133.3% 40% 40% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +133.3% 40% -2.7%
10% +111.0% 40% -12.0%
15% +90.6% 40% -20.5%
20% +71.9% 40% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +158% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $5 +$33 +649%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 +$14 +440%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 73¢ $17 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records