Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ffe…1bc9 sports 369 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%205W / 163L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$59
sports 43% +$95
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 -3.0% -12.3% 95% 5% -14.6%
all 368 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 44% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 44% -7.8%
10% -20.7% 43% -16.6%
15% -28.3% 43% -24.7%
20% -35.4% 42% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses205 / 163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage230d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 24? May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 19? May 20 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 11? May 11 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on May 4? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on April 26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26? Apr 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Apr 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 7? Apr 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 7? Apr 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6? Apr 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 4? Apr 06 $65 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 2? Apr 04 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1? Apr 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on March 28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 28? Mar 28 $20 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 28 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Mar 28 $2 +$3 +127%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 28 $2 +$5 +245%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) Mar 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $44 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $44 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $44 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $43 29d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 34d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 34d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 34d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 34d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 35d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 35d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 36d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 36d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $3 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on May 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 40d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 46d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.74 · official $43.74 (match) · 609 history records