Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7ffd…28e3 politics 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 37% −$13
sports 4% +$40
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 4% -9.5%
all 136 +0.7% -8.9% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage113d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $170 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $387 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $428 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $378 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $389 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $375 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $380 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $339 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $206 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $28 30h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $19 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $170 24d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $170 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 25d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 26d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 27d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 27d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 371 history records