Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ffd…3ef3 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$37
sports 9% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.9% -15.7% 46% 46% -9.4%
≤30d 54 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 54 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 41% -12.7%
all 54 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 41% -12.7%
10% -27.7% 39% -21.1%
15% -34.7% 33% -28.7%
20% -41.1% 26% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$26 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$35 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records