Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ffb…6028 crypto 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%499W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days+$7
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 295 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 1% -12.0%
≤90d 516 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -10.9%
all 516 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses499 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)516 / 516
History coverage40d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 516 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1404 history records