Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7ff9…35e6 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$13
other 8% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.7% +19.1% 54% 46% -0.3%
≤30d 13 +31.7% +19.1% 54% 46% -0.3%
≤90d 13 +31.7% +19.1% 54% 46% -0.3%
all 13 +31.7% +19.1% 54% 46% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.1% 46% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here +7.7% 23% -9.8%
15% -2.7% 23% -18.5%
20% -12.2% 15% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.04 · official $12.04 (match) · 64 history records